As businesses return from the 2025 holiday season, new data has revealed that food waste continues to increase and is one of the most costly and hidden challenges in the global retail supply chain.

This is according to the Making the Invisible Visible: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Food Waste to Drive Growth and Profitability report, published by Avery Dennison. 

Independent modeling warns that the economic cost of food waste across the global supply chain is forecast to reach $540 billion by 2026, up from $526 billion last year.

The data highlights how leaders are consistently challenged at various points throughout the supply chain and most specifically across perishables. 

When asked to identify the three most difficult categories for waste, half pointed to meat (50%), 45% cited produce, and 28% mentioned baked goods. Over half (51%) of business leaders said that inventory management and overstocking contribute significantly to food waste within their operations. 

Tackling this will require a combination of solutions, including item-level inventory visibility, demand forecasting, and real-time shelf-life management.

Additionally, the report findings show that, on average, food waste costs are equivalent to 33% of total revenues in the food retail supply chain annually from post-farm up to the point-of-sale.

Extensive research involving 3,500 global food retailers and supply chain leaders reveals that, despite growing awareness, 61% of businesses say they still lack full visibility into where food waste occurs across their operations. 

Limited influence over the most waste-intensive areas of the supply chain is a common challenge, highlighting the urgent need for targeted innovation and cross-supply chain collaboration.

If current trends continue, the cumulative cost of food waste from 2025 to 2030 is expected to reach $3.4 trillion, coinciding with the 2030 deadline for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 12.3, which aims to halve global food waste. Despite this goal, the report uncovered that over a quarter (27%) of leaders said that they would not meet the 2030 deadline.

Meat has emerged as one of the most difficult categories for waste management, with 72% of supply chain leaders citing it as their biggest challenge. Given its high unit cost in grocery and food retail, even small reductions in waste can deliver significant financial gains. 

Economic modeling forecasts meat waste to amount to $94 billion in lost output across the global supply chain in 2026, almost one fifth of the total cumulative loss across the year, with fresh produce closely behind at $88 billion.

For retailers, pressures presented by economic volatility, poor adaptability to market-related shocks, and difficulty adjusting to shifting consumer demands are exacerbating systemic food waste issues. 

Almost three-quarters (74%) of retailers admit inflation is making it harder than ever to predict demand for fresh meat, and 73% report a rising demand amongst consumers for smaller meat portions or alternatives.